The Economic Survey 2022-23 (FY23), to be presented a day before Union Budget 2023-24 (FY24), is likely to project India's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 6 per cent and 7 per cent for FY24, Business Standard has learnt. The broader theme of the Survey could be on how India has dealt with two years of a global pandemic and the ongoing geopolitical disturbance, the strengths and weaknesses that emerged, and what lessons may be learnt. The much-awaited Survey will be the first one by Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran and his team in the finance ministry's economic division.

'If you look at the order books of capital equipment companies or money deployed on the ground, there is forward movement in terms of actual investment by the private sector.'

The Serious Fraud Investigation Office (SFIO) has arrested a person who the Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) said has emerged as the mastermind of the racket of incorporating a large number of shell companies with Chinese links in India.

Days after Moody's cut its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for financial year 2022-23 (FY23) after the official GDP print for the June quarter came in lower than expectations, the global ratings agency said it would maintain its long-term sovereign debt credit rating and outlook on Asia's third-largest economy. "The credit profile of India reflects key strengths, including its large and diversified economy with high growth potential, a relatively strong external position, and a stable domestic financing base for government debt," Moody's said on Tuesday. "We do not expect rising challenges to the global economy, including the impact of the Russia-Ukraine military conflict, higher inflation, and the tightening financial conditions on the back of policy tightening, to derail India's ongoing recovery from the pandemic in 2022 and 2023," it said.

The Centre has garnered around Rs 2,500-3,000 crore in the first five weeks after it imposed a windfall tax on oil and gas companies for the export of fuel, Business Standard has learnt. It is likely that the government will continue with the one-time tax till the Indian crude basket is above $80 a barrel, sources said. The next review of the windfall tax on oil companies is early next week.

The Centre's capital expenditure (capex) outlay for the April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1) of 2022-23 (FY23) could be close to Rs 1.5 trillion, Business Standard has learnt. As a percentage of full-year capex Budget Estimates (BE) of Rs 7.5 trillion, this could be at similar levels to the trends in the past few fiscal years. It is in the July-September quarter (Q2) of FY23 that capex is expected to pick up, when a bulk of the long-term capex loans to states are expected to be expended.

'It is building the country's infrastructure, and delivering it very efficiently.'

During his first Union Budget in July 2014, former finance minister Arun Jaitley announced the setting up of an institution called 3P India, with an allocation of Rs 500 crore. The intention was to mainstream public-private partnerships (PPPs) in India. The plan was to bring together the capacities of the government and private sector to push PPP projects.

Agra has long been known for the Taj Mahal, but it is also a manufacturing hub filled with micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) that make everything from electronic components to metal products, from paints and chemicals to footwear. And five years after the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the MSMEs here complain that while the indirect tax regime has been transformative, cutting out the need to file multiple taxes, its biggest drawback has been the delay in credit refunds. Whoever you speak to - MSME owners, tax lawyers, or industry bodies like the National Chambers of Industries and Commerce (NCIC), Agra Footwear Manufacturers and Exporters Chamber (AFMEC) and Agra Shoe Manufacturers Association (ASMA) - they all emphasise that the GST continues to face some key challenges.

Union finance secretary T V Somanathan recently said the Centre had saved Rs 10,000 crore in FY22 on interest payments after adopting new accounting mechanisms for central government agencies and centrally sponsored schemes (CSS) for state governments. Speaking at an event, Somanathan said due to these, there was an unspent balance of Rs 1.2 trillion with state agencies from CSS as on March 31, 2022. This means this amount will be reduced from the Centre's borrowing for now and it can be considered a short-term saving for the exchequer.

India's inflation trajectory in the coming months will be influenced more by the geo-political situation due to the war in Europe and its impact on supply chains and commodity prices. However, the country is better placed than most to "weather the storm" and achieve growth of close to 8 per cent in the current fiscal year, the finance ministry said in its latest monthly economic report on Thursday. "Through the channel of imports, elevated global crude and edible oil prices now have a significant impact on India's inflation outlook. "Government measures to keep the prices of these commodities in check, along with the recent hike in policy rates by the RBI, are expected to temper inflationary pressures in the economy," the monthly economic report for April, drafted by the finance ministry's economic division, said.

'Top lines will grow, volume growth will be there, but margins might also be impacted.'

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest World Economic Outlook report, has slashed its forecast for India's FY23 gross domestic product growth to 8.2 per cent from 9 per cent, saying that higher commodity prices will weigh on private consumption and investment. This was one of the steepest cuts for emerging economies compared to the IMF's January WEO forecasts. Saying that global economic prospects have worsened significantly due to commodity price volatility and disruption of supply chains caused by the war in Europe, IMF cut its global growth outlook for calendar year 2022 to 3.6 per cent from 4.4 per cent, and said both Russia and Ukraine could experience large GDP contractions.

The finance ministry said on Tuesday that high energy and commodity prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine may provide an upside risk to inflation and continued vigil is required. "Going forward, elevated energy and commodity prices may act as an upside risk to the inflation outlook in the near-medium term. "Given the inherently unsustainable nature of high prices, international commodity prices are expected to level off early with an increase in supplies outside the crisis zone," the department of economic affairs said in its latest monthly economic report for February.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the much-awaited 2022-23 Union Budget on February 1. While there has been strong recovery in some sectors, touch services like hospitality, tourism and leisure continue to suffer after two Covid-19 waves. Household savings have been hit due to increased spending on health care. Consumption has still not reached pre-pandemic levels.

The Centre is considering a gradual phasing out of certain direct tax exemptions meant for corporate and personal tax payers. This is among the tax proposals being discussed for the upcoming Union Budget 2022-23. A top policymaker said that according to the government's internal assessment, the percentage of corporates and individuals shifting to the new exemption-less tax regime has been very encouraging, and the Budget-makers expect many more to make the switch in the coming years. The person also said the finance ministry is exploring the option of rationalising the capital gains tax rates.

'It's important to find that balance between lives and livelihoods, make sure that we protect lives while ensuring that the economic recovery is back on track.'

According to highly placed sources, the finance ministry is likely to extend ECLGS and other loan guarantee schemes for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), hospitality and tourism sector, and the health infrastructure beyond March 31, Business Standard has learnt. This is likely to be announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman as part of her Budget speech on February 1.

While presenting her 2021-22 Union Budget, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had set a fiscal deficit target of 6.8 per cent of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) against the 2020-21 Revised Estimate of 9.5 per cent. The fiscal correction in the upcoming 2022-23 Union Budget is unlikely to be that steep. Even as discussions among top Budget-makers are ongoing, the fiscal deficit target for 2022-23 may likely be in the range of 6.5-6.8 per cent.

The Centre is looking to convene a meeting of the all-powerful Goods and Service Tax Council in early January. The meeting is likely to focus on rectifying the inverted duty structure for a few more items and will also serve as a platform for pre-Budget discussions between Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and state finance ministers, Business Standard has learnt. "The current Winter Session of Parliament ends on December 23, followed by the Christmas-New Year period. "After that we would like to have a meeting of the GST Council, depending on whether there can be a quorum," a top government official said.